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Uni-Variate and Multi-Variate Short-Term Household Electricity Consumption Prediction Using Machine Learning Technique

Author(s):

Sakshi Tyagi* and Pratima Singh   Pages 1 - 11 ( 11 )

Abstract:


Background: Electricity consumption prediction plays an important role in conservation, development, and future planning. Accurate prediction model has various field applications in real-life scenarios, future electricity demand estimation, performance evaluation of current time, fault detection, efficient energy production, resource-saving, and many more. In this paper, a CNN based short term building electricity consumption prediction model is developed and tested for two different types of datasets that can perform weekly prediction. Two different datasets are used to check how the algorithm behaves on different datasets i.e., what are the impacts dataset has on prediction accuracy. Errors were calculated using MAE and RMSE. <p> Objective: The objective of the study is to develop an electricity consumption prediction (ECP) model for a univariate and multivariate dataset using CNN and LSTM network and to find that how the correlation and independency of features affect the electricity prediction task. <p> Methods: The proposed electricity consumption model is built using the deep CNN andLSTM network and is trained and tested using the univariate and multivariate time series dataset thus the two experiments have been performed and are named as U-ECPCL (Univariate- Electricity Consumption Prediction using CNN and LSTM) and M-ECPCL (Multivariate- Electricity Consumption Prediction using CNN and LSTM) respectively. <p> Results: The model predicts accurately with few errors with MAE of 0.251 and RMSE of 0.66 for univariate dataset and MAE of 4.36 and RMSE of 11.53 for a multivariate dataset. <p> Conclusion: The model predicts accurately with few errors and if the prediction error of univariate and multivariate are compared then it is concluded that the univariate model outperforms the multivariate model.

Keywords:

CNN, LSTM, building electricity consumption prediction, univariate analysis, multivariate analysis, IEA.

Affiliation:

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Ajay Kumar Garg Engineering College, AKTU, Ghaziabad, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Ajay Kumar Garg Engineering College, AKTU, Ghaziabad



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